960428

Burmese opposition, junta

locked in stalemate

RANGOON: Nine months after Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, Burma's government and opposition are locked in a stalemate from which neither side seems willing to back down.

In public the ruling junta has downplayed the significance of the popular opposition leader, but has repeatedly harangued her in the official media as an "internal destructionist" bent on undermining state stability.

"She is speaking nonsense ... and is power crazy," senior junta member Lieutenant General Kyaw Ba, who is also minister for hotels and tourism, said in an interview with AFP Friday.

"In Myanmar (Burma) we have a saying: 'When the lice jump, dust is not going to fly,'" he said when asked if the junta was worried about Aung San Suu Kyi's popularity and influence across the country.

"It has become clear that the SLORC has no intention of changing its game plan," said one Rangoon-based analyst, referring to the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), as the junta is officially known.

That game plan, he said, consisted of ignoring the opposition's calls for dialogue and slowly hardening its position against Aung San Suu Kyi and members of her National League for Democracy (NLD).

NLD members have complained increasingly about what they see as a growing pattern of harassment against them.

The most recent example was the arrest earlier this month of Leo Nichols, a close friend of Aung San Suu Kyi. A number of NLD members and supporters have received heavy prison sentences in the past few months for what the party has claimed were peaceful political activities.

In a recorded message played before the UN Commission of Human Rights in Geneva on April 17, Aung San Suu Kyi said that "lawless methods were being used to repress and harass" NLD members and supporters.

"These cases are merely the tip of an iceberg of harassment and repression that is going on throughout the whole country," she said.

The NLD has also made moves to up the political ante and is now calling for the immediate convening of parliament -- to be attended by MPs elected in 1990 polls which were overwhelmingly won by the NLD.

"Since the NLD left the National Convention back in November, it has been obvious that they will not deal with SLORC on SLORC's terms," a diplomat said.

The National Convention, aimed at drawing up a new constitution for the country, was denounced by Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD as a sham designed to legitimize the junta's grip on power.

However, the diplomat said, the opposition was unlikely to force the hand of the authorities and preferred to play a waiting game for the chinks they were sure would appear in the apparently invincible armor of the junta.

Aung San Suu Kyi remains widely popular with the people of Burma and her speeches outside her home continue to draw up to 2,000 people every weekend.

"The fact that the SLORC lets her hold her meetings on Saturdays and Sundays is a measure of their confidence in controlling the situation," one diplomat said.

However, even if the junta is confident enough to allow the meetings to continue, the gatherings are clearly an irritant to the authorities.

Observers say Aung San Suu Kyi has recently raised the tenor of her speeches, which usually touch on subjects such as democratic movements in other countries and the economic problems faced by the people of Burma.

She recently denounced the junta as "lawless" and last weekend warned that the Union Solidarity and Development Association -- a SLORC sanctioned youth group -- had the makings of a "Hitler Youth," witnesses said.

"She is exaggerating and persuading our citizens to have misunderstandings with the government," Kyaw Ba said.

"She must be very careful in speaking to our citizens," he said. Undermining confidence in the government "would not be good for her," he added without elaborating.-AFP