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India opinion poll

boosts Hindu

nationalists

NEW DELHI: India's opposition Hindu nationalists looked set to win significant gains in general elections starting in two days, as two polls predicted on Thursday the lowest-ever vote share for the ruling Congress.

Both pointed to a hung parliament and a coalition government.

A poll by the Centre for Media Studies, published in the Times of India, forecast the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win between 180 and 195 seats in the 545-seat Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.

Congress, which has ruled India for all but four years since independence in 1947, would win 135 to 150 seats and the National Front-Left Front alliance 135 to 145, it said.

Congress won 232 seats in 1991 and the BJP 120.

A second poll, produced for the Hindu newspaper by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, made no forecast on seats but said Congress stood to gain its lowest-ever percentage of the vote, around 32 per cent.

The Times said Congress would get 31 per cent. The party's previous low of 34.5 per cent was in 1977, when it was thrown out of office after 19 months of authoritarian rule in an emergency imposed by then prime minister Indira Gandhi.

The elections are staggered over six days between April 27 and May 30. Counting begins on May 8 and a clear picture of the state of the parties will emerge by about May 11. About 590 million people can vote in the world's largest democracy.

The opinion polls were another blow to Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, whose party has been torn apart by defections and scandal. He is the first person from outside the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to lead Congress into a general election.

Rao, calling for stability and the need to see through the economic reforms he introduced in 1991, opening India's doors to foreign trade and investment, has failed to inject much sparkle into a a lacklustre campaign.

The BJP, which promotes Hindu cultural nationalism and wants to channel foreign investment away from the consumer sector towards infrastructure, has been buoyed by other polls.

"As we draw closer to the the day of voting, there is a swing in favour of the front-running BJP," party president Lal Krishna Advani told reporters on Wednesday.

"We are confident that by the time we reach May 7 (the third phase of voting), BJP will be able to cross the hump and secure a majority by itself," he said.

A BJP government would send a chill through India's neighbours. The party advocates the production of a nuclear weapon and its aggressively Hindu stance could increase tensions with the Moslem nations that share borders with India.

Hindus make up 82 percent of India's population of 920 million people, with Moslems comprising 12 per cent.

The BJP is likely to need partners if it is to come to power, and its Hindu policies have won it few friends among the more secular parties like Congress and the left.

Leftist leaders have ruled out a a coalition with Congress, but commentators say there could be some sort of understanding between the two groups to keep the BJP out of power.-Reuter