960422

INSIGHT

MARKET BEHAVIOUR AND ANALYSIS

Prices recover on last clearing session.

Index recovered its overnight losses as clearing day obligations compelled the players to square up their positions, most of the activity remained centered around PTC and Hub who made some marginal gains lifting the index substantially. KSE Index closed some 8 points higher at 1519 against the previous closing of 1512.06, trading volume reduced to just 11.27 million shares as compared to 25 million shares being traded in the previous session.

Over the retail counters some deals were struck at the lower levels in banking, cement and energy scrips however across the board the activity remained dismal with prices marking close at the previous levels after a sideways trade.

The UBL shock has been absorbed infact has been lauded by various circles and even if all the other depressants remain the same market may look forward to a fresh stable start from Wednesday.

It appears that KSE-100 index considered its immediate support level of 1507 as major point and bounced back for technical correction. Technically though market was in oversold region but was expected to face further losses due to negative sentiment of the market. Nevertheless index's Monday's performance cannot be taken as clear indicator for reversal in direction because there is chance that yesterday's gains were merely due to short covering on settlement day of trading week. On trading charts it is facing very important resistance at 1522 which is pivot point for Tuesday's trading. If index succeeds to breach that level then we can expected few more rallies but sharp gains are least likely. At present market is showing the scope of further gain up to the level of 1550 and next direction will depend on market's ability to breach that point. On the other hand if Tuesday's index failed to breach 1522 then it may try to resume its initial trend. Major support in that situation will be 1508 and penetration will depress market towards 1470. Technically it is slightly oversold.

IN THE LIMELIGHT

PTC

Though PTC opened with negative note and remained lackluster in early trading hours but succeeded to curb further losses and closed with moderate gains. Technically it is slightly oversold and can move up in technical correction but overall sentiments about the trend are still bearish. And there is a chance that it may come back to complete it's bearish spell by testing it's key support level of 30.40. On trading chart pivot price for Tuesday's trading is 32.10 and penetration from below side may help to challenge immediate resistance 32.60. This resistance is very important in the sense if PTC succeeds to penetrate that price then it may show, few more rallies towards 35.60. And if the share remain unable to breach its pivot price 32.10 or immediate resistance 32.60 then we can expect the resumption of initial trend. Ideas about long term negative trend will remain intact and PTC is not expected to adopt clear direction during current week.

FAYSAL BANK

After four sessions of continuous battering the scrip resisted strongly to lose further, as it closed at 27.00 which was its opening price also, despite no losses at the close the tone of the scrip remained slightly bearish during the session as most of the trades were concluded below opening price. Monday's trading resulted in the price chart giving some indication of short term reversal in current trend and the scrip is likely to register some gains on Tuesday and subsequent sessions. The market situation of the scrip is neutral, while trading range for Tuesday is 26.75-28.00.

PAK SUZUKI

Pak Suzuki has shown technical strength to hold on its current levels. In Sunday's session the scrip touched its support level, from where it bounced back on Monday. The consolidative movement of the scrip in a narrow range may continue for some time and the longer it takes to stay in those narrow boundaries the greater there will be the chances for a large and sharp breakout. Given the significant improvement in scrip's fundamentals the direction of the potential break out is more likely to be on the upper side. The trading range for the scrip on Tuesday is 41.00-42.50.

TRADING MAJOR MAJOR MARKET 30 DAYS 50 DAYS NET

SHARE TREND RANGE SUPPORT RESISTANCE SITUATION M.AVG M.AVG CLOSE CHANGE

KSE INDEX SLIGHTLY UP 15.10-15.30 1500.00 1550.00 S. OVERSOLD 1515.00 1525.00 1519.79 7.73

LTV SLIGHTLY UP 4.10-4.75 4.00 5.00 NEUTRAL 4.60 4.60 4.25 0.25

METROLIFE SIDEWAYS 9.50-10.50 9.00 11.00 NEUTRAL 10.75 11.35 10.00 0.25

ADAMJEE SLIGHTLY UP 125-129 124.00 130.00 NEUTRAL 127.90 129.30 127.00 2.00

HONDA ATLAS SLIGHTLY UP 124-128 24.00 28.00 NEUTRAL 25.70 25.90 25.25 0.25

IBRAHIM FIBRE SIDEWAYS 7.00-7.50 7.00 8.00 NEUTRAL 7.52 7.75 7.05 0.05

ASKARI BANK SLIGHTLY DOWN 27.00-29.00 27.00 29.00 OVERSOLD 32.50 33.90 28.00 -1.00

MAPLE LEAF SLIGHTLY UP 17.50-19.00 17.00 20.00 S. OVERSOLD 20.00 21.10 18.00 1.00

CHERAT CEMENT SLIGHTLY UP 27.00-29.00 27.00 30.00 0VERSOLD 34.60 34.90 29.25 1.00

PLATINUM BANK SIDEWAYS 5.50-6.50 5.50 7.00 S. OVERSOLD 6.05 6.80 6.00 0.10