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MARKET BEHAVIOUR AND ANALYSIS

Market Averts The Crash Below 1500

The news of UBL being placed under the direct control of the SBP took its toll on the market right from the start, however, losses were recovered modestly courtesy same session short covering. The KSE index after falling by more than 16 points closed some 10 points lower at 1511.35 against the weekend close of 1521.15, volumes once again were depressed at just 14 million shares.

It appears that KSE 100 Index has determined it's near turn direction for negative movement and may drift further lower in coming sessions. Technically though, pressure indicators are near to enter in oversold region as 14 day's RSI is blinking at 30.00 but showing more room to go further down up to the level of 25.00. Which shows that index still has potential to test its key support level of 1470.00. In near term market is facing very immediate support at 1507 and then at 1470. However, potential indicators are not showing enough room to bounce back from 1507.00. But it does not mean that one should ignore that level.

IN THE LIMELIGHT

DEWAN SALMAN

Dewan Salman continued to make new life lows on trading charts during previous sessions but now it appears that it may divert its direction for positive movement very soon. On trading charts it is facing overhead resistance at Rs. 40.20 which is also pivot price for Monday's trading. If it succeeds to breach that price from below side we can expect few rallies towards Rs. 45.00. Market out look is slightly oversold as 14-days RSI is falling in the area of Rs. 30.00 and 5, 3, 3, stochastic are around 5 percent and 8 percent. Showing short term oversold situation. Furthermore price following oscillators are showing the possibility of price divergence which is also favouring for change in direction. After analyzing all these factors we conclude that this share is due for upward correction very soon and buy on dip may give good results.

PTC

The price was slightly depressed as the rumours about the cancellation of UBL privatisation caused the panic in the market and, PTC with its future being highly dependent on the privatisation received minor bruises in Sunday's trade. Despite losses the bulls were able to hold the price above the level of Rs. 31.00, an important resistance level. Yet enough rooms available, in the pressure indicators for further losses which could result in further continuation of downward trend and the scrip is likely to face some more losses in Monday's trading.

BANK OF PUNJAB

The price of the scrip fell further marginally to add to already huge losses in past few days. The Bank of Punjab received further battering as it closed at Rs. 24.50. In the early, session, the bulls tried to push the price up but relatively strong selling pressure pushed the price towards lower levels and finally it closed with a loss of 0.15 percent as against its previous close of Rs. 24.65. The scrip may show marginal losses in coming session in an attempt to touch the medium term target of Rs. 22.70, yet the level of Rs. 24.00 is a strong support level and the bulls may resist any further moves aimed at taking the price beyond the level of Rs. 24.00. The trading range for Monday is Rs. 25.40-24.00.

LTV

As we mentioned in our previous analysis that the scrip made a triangle formation and there will be breakthrough in near future. On Sunday broke the triangle formation and gave a loss of 0.35 paisa, closed at a very important support level of Rs. 4.00. Technically it is in a central zone while pressure indicators are showing that scrip may give some more losses and try to test it next support level of Rs. 3.75 in coming session.

IBRAHIM FIBRE

The side ways movement in a narrow range is expected to continue until it breaks the major support and resistance level of Rs. 7.00 and Rs. 8.00. While on fundamental side the plant is not yet in production and other factors as the announcement of the existing units, below the expectation, which are contributing in the lack of interest by investor towards the scrip. Trading range for Monday is between Rs. 7.00-7.50.

TRADING MAJOR MAJOR MARKET 30 DAYS 50 DAYS NET

SHARE TREND RANGE SUPPORT RESISTANCE SITUATION M.AVG M.AVG CLOSE CHANGE

KSE INDEX SLIGHTLY DOWN 1500-1520 1470.00 1545.00 NEUTRAL 1572.00 1637.00 1511.52 -9.63

PTC SLIGHTLY DOWN 30.80-31.90 30.40 33.00 NEUTRAL 34.00 35.20 31.45 -0.50

HUB CO CONSOLIDATIVE 28.00-29.40 27.00 31.00 NEUTRAL 28.30 29.00 28.80 -0.15

B. O. PUNJAB SLIGHTLY DOWN 24.00-25.40 23.50 26.00 NEUTRAL 27.00 28.40 24.50 -0.15

DEWAN SALMAN CONSOLIDATIVE 39.00-42.20 36.70 45.00 S. OVERSOLD 46.00 51.60 40.25 -0.75

DHAN FIBRE CONSOLIDATIVE 6.00-6.70 6.00 7.50 S. OVERSOLD 8.00 8.41 6.10 -0.8