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MARKET BEHAVIOUR AND ANALYSIS

END OF CAMARADERIE AS BEARS GAIN AN UPPER CLAW

The rare show of espirit de-corps after sessions of directionless trade was finally put off on the last day of trading week as the bulls - as if there were any - handed over the charge back to the roaring bears.

The KSE 100 in the absence of any support fell miserably by 18 points - well below the psychological barrier of 1550 - to close at 1543.82 against the overnight finish of 1561.72. Volume, on the other hand, reduced further to just 10 million shares.

Perhaps the major weakness of the market, other than anything else, is the dependence on few scrips. While across the board market saw little activity, most of the losses can rightly be attributed to the mega scrips. Even a moderate fall in the values of PTC and Hub can push the whole market sentiment down and that was exactly what happened in Monday's trade.

The market has become vulnerable to speculation and hence can be manipulated easily as weak fundamentals are also favouring the mania. Despite the fact that most scrips are currently available at some realistic levels, no one is absolutely sure about the next stop down-the-line and perhaps its still better to adopt a wait and see strategy.

Index's failure to reach its overhead resistance level of 1562 is expected to depress values further down. Technically, that number was very important in the determination of near-term direction and if index succeeds to challenge that number then there is a chance for positive trend but now it is expected to come further down to increase its potential. On trading charts immediate support is expected at 1540 and penetration may push values towards 1500. Technically, again it is in neutral region and its next behaviour will entirely depend on the development of fresh fundamental factors.

IN THE LIMELIGHT

PTC

On Monday, market remained directionless with thin volume of trade and is expected to show breakout in trend very soon. On trading charts, the market tested both of its support and resistance levels but failed to break any one of them on Tuesday, if it continues to remain directionless then it may find very tight range of 40 paisa to fluctuate. Therefore, it seems very difficult to remain sideways for longer period of time and it has to take decision for near-term direction. On trading charts, PTC is facing major support at Rs. 32.10 and resistance at Rs. 32.80. Penetration of either side will help to declare next direction. Technically, it is neutral and potential indicators are showing mixed situation. Tuesday's trading seems very important and early hour's breakout will help to take investment decision.

MAPLE LEAF: Within two trading sessions the scrip gave a loss of Rs. 2. On Monday, after breaking the immediate support of Rs. 18.00 it closed at Rs. 17.50. The price is moving in strong downward channel, which is expected to continue in the coming sessions and may try to test its next important support of Rs. 17 in Tuesday's trading session.

ADAMJEE INSURANCE: Despite bearish trend in the market the scrip was unable to breach its important support of Rs. 125. On Monday it opened at Rs. 130 and, after making a low of Rs. 129, bounced back and closed at same day's opening. Technically, the scrip is in neutral zone. Directional trading is expected to continue until it breaks the immediate support and resistance level of Rs. 127 to 133.

ASKARI COMMERCIAL BANK: The scrip closed at a slightly depressed note. As it closed it gave away 0.25 after opening Rs. 31.00. The scrip on strong fundamentals is likely to stay above the level of Rs. 30.00 before bouncing upward on any strong support on the fundamental front. On the upper side, the level of Rs. 31.60 is a strong resistance for coming sessions and the scrip is most likely to remains between the range of Rs. 30.00 to Rs. 31.65.

HONDA ATLAS: Honda Atlas closed at Rs. 26.65 as it was slightly down in Monday's trade. The scrip gave a reversal sign as it formed a hanging man in Sunday's session. Given the overall scenario, the losses are not likely to be heavy and if the scrip is able to break the level of Rs. 25.50, then it will face the next support at Rs. 23.40. The closing below Rs. 25.50 in Tuesday's session should confirm further declines.

TRADING MAJOR MAJOR MARKET 30 DAYS 50 DAYS NET

SHARE TREND RANGE SUPPORT RESISTANCE SITUATION M. AVG M. AVG CLOSE CHANGE

KSE INDEX SLIGHTLY DOWN 1532-1556 1510.00 1662.00 NEUTRAL 1599.00 1642.00 1543.82 -17.9

LTV SIDEWAYS 4.15-4.75 4.00 5.00 NEUTRAL 4.60 4.65 4.30 -0.05

METROLIFE SIDEWAYS 9.50-10.50 9.00 11.00 NEUTRAL 11.05 11.55 9.75 -0.50

PTC SLIGHTLY DOWN 31.80-32.70 30.00 33.50 NEUTRAL 34.50 35.30 32.25 0.50

HONDA ATLAS SIDEWAYS 24.60-25.60 24.00 26.00 NEUTRAL 25.80 28.85 25.65 -0.45

IBRAHIM FIBRE SLIGHTLY UP 7.00-7.50 7.00 8.00 NEUTRAL 7.65 7.83 7.10 -0.05

HUB SIDEWAYS 29.50-30.25 29.40 30.50 NEUTRAL 28.45 29.09 29.80 0.30