960410

INSIGHT

MARKET BEHAVIOUR AND ANALYSIS

The market sentiments remained unchanged in view of the uncertainty prevailing on the political front, the market for most of the session moved sideways alternatively falling into the plus zone. The rings for most of the day remained _quite and no usual hustle and bustle was witnessed at any counter as is evident from the volume which reduced further to just 23 million shares.

The KSE 100 Index after a dull trade, closed nearly 4 points lower at 1545.05 against the overnight closing of 1548.82, the activity as usual continued to be centered around PTC and Hub who made some marginal gains across the board, similar trend was witnessed though on much smaller volumes. The index continue to trade sideways with tight range and thin volume of trade. Technically market is facing overhead resistance at 1555 and immediate support at 1540, penetration of either side may support further movement of 50 point in same direction. However, it's overall trend will remain directionless until it breaks it's major support or resistance levels 1510 & 1595 respectively. Long-term outlook of the index seem not good as directional indicators started to change their direction. On trading charts, 30 day's moving average cross 50 days moving average while both were declining. This is very dangerous sign because, after that formation, market can go further 100-150 points down. Therefore it is necessary to watch market behaviour carefully, because any sharp downside rally may determine next support around 1450 which, at present, seems least likely.

IN THE LIMELIGHT

PTC

-Ill fated PTC remained unable to get any support for upward rallies and seems surrendering against bears for significant losses in prices in coming sessions. On trading charts, a "death cross" of two important moving averages seems to be appearing (30 days moving average is near to cross 50 days m. avg). If PTC failed to improve its values in remaining days of the week, then it is expected to find next stop at 30.40, previous low and very important trend line support for the share. Technically it is in neutral region and showing enough room to determine any direction for long period of time. Directional indicators are suggesting 32.50 and 33.00 as key resistance and failure to penetrate these levels in coming two sessions may declare its fate for negative trend.

CHERAT CEMENT

The downward channel which was started on February 2, 1996 is expected to continue in coming session until it breaks the major support and resistance level of 32.00-34.00. Technically, the scrip is in a slightly oversold situation, while pressure indicators are showing that the scrip may try to test its important resistance level of 34.00 in near term. Breaking of this downward channel will know the long-term direction.

MAPLE LEAF

During Tuesday trading session, the scrip had broken the major support of 2.00, it gave a lost of 50 paisa. It may remain depressed and try to test its next support which is at 18.00 in coming session. Trading range for Thursday is between 18.50-19.75.

ASKARI BANK

After breaking the small triangle that it had formed earlier, Askari received the support at the psychological barrier of 30.00. Though the target of the triangle is not yet reached, and the scrip may try to breach the level of 30.00 to fulfil this job, yet the oversold situation may result in some buying support for the scrip. We expect further lack-lustre performance in coming sessions, yet the losses will be very marginal and no sharp rallies at the downside should be expected. The level of 27.75 should be considered as the long-term support which is least likely to be breached.

FAUJI FERTILIZER

Fauji moved in narrow range of 0.65 with making a high at 74.65. The scrip already has broken its short-term line from above and we expect it to show further decline on the lower side, where it has first support at 72.00 and, the second is at 69.00. The breach of one level will suggest the move towards next. The pressure indicators signify sufficient potential for further losses, which is further supported by scrip's past potential where it was unable to break some significant barriers. The trading range for Thursday is 73.25-74.70.

TRADING MAJOR MAJOR MARKET 10 DAYS 30 DAYS NET

SHARE TREND RANGE SUPPORT RESISTANCE SITUATION M.AVG M. AVG CLOSE CHANGE

KSE INDEX SIDEWAYS 1535-1565 1620.00 1595.00 NEUTRAL 1555.00 1585.00 1648.82 3.77

LTV SIDEWAYS 4.25-4.75 4.00 5.00 NEUTRAL 4.50 4.70 4.50 0.15

METROLIFE SIDEWAYS 9.00-11.00 9.00 11.00 NEUTRAL 10.20 11.22 10.50 0.50

ADAMJEE SIDEWAYS 128-132 126.00 135.00 NEUTRAL130.40 130.70 130.00 0.00

PIONEER SIDEWAYS 10.50-11.50 10.00 12.00 S. OVERSOLD 11.30 12.75 10.85 -0.15

IBRAHIM FIBRE SLIGHTLY UP 7.00-8.00 7.00 8.00 NEUTRAL 7.40 7.80 7.00 -0.25