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Hardliners rise again in

Bosnian Serb politics

SARAJEVO: A cabal of hardline Bosnian Serbs around leader Radovan Karadzic may have manoeuvred themselves back to prominence in a dangerous development for the peace process, Western diplomats said on Tuesday.

The hardliners' return to the fore has stalled an attempt by relative moderates based in the northern city of Banja Luka to wrest power from Pale, the Bosnian Serb village "capital," near Sarajevo.

Diplomats say the hardliners are behind a stubborn delay in the release of prisoners of war and a complete stalemate in all attempts to knit together Bosnia's constituent parts -- the Moslem-Croat federation and the Bosnian Serb republic.

Watchers of the Bosnian Serb political game admit they are often incorrect and liken their work to Kremlinology, the study of runic press comment to divine what secret power struggles were taking place in the former Soviet Union.

Matters are complicated by the continued power of the Serb military, still led by war crimes suspect General Ratko Mladic, which favours Banja Luka but not the politics of compromise.

But, diplomats say, last week's Bosnian Serb parliament session offered clues to the ebb and flow of power.

Karadzic, also an indicted war crimes suspect and supposed to be stepping down from his post, played a prominent role. Banja Luka-based Prime Minister Rajko Kasagic did not. Nor did Kasagic or his allies attend a special government meeting packed with hardliners on Tuesday.

Velibor Ostojic, reputed to have led the brutal expulsion of Moslems from the eastern town of Foca in 1992, stepped from relative obscurity to become a deputy prime minister.

He and another hardliner, Bosnian Serb foreign minister Aleksa Buha, are expected to run two new bodies to more closely control state policy -- the committee for "division" and the committee for relations with the international community.

"We've seen a reemergence of the leadership team from the start of the war in 1992," said one Western diplomat.

"They're trying to reestablish their position by being obstructive and they're trying to decouple the Republika Srpska (Bosnian Serb entity) from the rest of Bosnia. Karadzic has said that's his goal."

Pale's aim is to continue in peace the policy that drove it through years of war -- to carve an internationally recognised and exclusively Serb state from the carcass of Bosnia.

At the Office of the High Representative, the bureau that implements the civilian aspects of Bosnia's peace deal, officials say that recently the Serbs have blocked even simple issues like reconnecting telephones and power supplies.

"They're trying to elevate everything to the level of a state dealing with a foreign body. Its a crucial point," said one frustrated international official.

The turmoil has cast doubt on mediators' hopes that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, the anti-Karadzic patron of the Bosnian Serbs, can deliver a more compliant leadership.

Observers say the Bosnian Serb tactics are yet another ill omen for the peace process, spelling trouble for chances of free and fair country-wide elections this year and hopes the two parts of the country can live harmoniously in the future.

"There is no goodwill, no commitment to the goals of the peace agreement," said John Fawcett of the International Crisis Group, an independent body reporting on the implementation of the Dayton peace accord.

"There will only be stability here through reintegration and for that to happen the nationalists have to be defeated," said Fawcett. "But no one has volunteered to take on the job."-Reuter