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China grains imports seen slowing

SINGAPORE: China is expected to import more than 1.0 million tonnes of grains annually by the end of the decade, down sharply from 1995/96, due to increased domestic production, the U.S. Feed Grains Council said.

But imports by other major Asian consumers especially Taiwan and South Korea are set to rise in the coming years to help meet robust demand, according to a study by the Washington-based group. A copy of the report was made available on Wednesday.

In its forecast of world supply and demand between 1995 and 2004, the group predicted that China was likely to buy 3.2 million tonnes of coarse grains in 1995/96 (Oct-Sept), down from 4.3 million in 1994/95.

China, once a major net exporter, exported nearly 12 million tonnes of grains in 1992/93.

Already a huge coarse grain importer purchasing 9.1 million tonnes in 1995, South Korea is projected to increase purchases by 2.4 million tonnes, or 26 percent during 1995 and 2004.

The group said Taiwan, the world's third largest importer after Japan and South Korea, is projected to increase dependence on world markets by 1.4 million tonnes or 23 percent by 2004.

"This market is buoyed by continued strong economic growth, an increasingly wealthy population and a highly sophisticated agribusiness sector," the council said.

Indonesia, historically relying on domestic corn production for its domestic needs, imported 2.0 million tonnes in 1995, up sharply from 900,000 tonnes in 1993.

The group said imports are expected to grow to 3.3 million by 2004, due to rapidly rising feed grain demand for livestock production.

Malaysia purchased 2.3 million tonnes of corn in 1995, and imports are expected to grow to 3.3 million in 2004.

Domestic consumption was 2.5 million tonnes in 1995, almost all for feed purposes. Domestic use is projected to grow to 3.3 million tonnes in 2004. Food use of corn is expected to double but it represents only about five percent of total use.

Japan, the world's largest coarse grain importer, took 19.7 million tonnes in 1995 or 23 percent of world total trade.

But imports have declined since the mid-1980s and are projected to grow only very slowly at 1.2 percent during the coming decade as consumers turn to high-value imports of finished products.-Reuter