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Peace with Israel would change U.S.-Syrian ties

SHEPHERDSTOWN: A peace treaty between Syria and Israel, the ultimate aim of negotiations under way this week in West Virginia, would transform the relationship between Damascus and Washington.

Despite frequent high-level contacts between U.S. and Syrian officials, including a summit meeting between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafez al-Assad in Geneva in 1994, Syria remains on the State Department's list of "state sponsors of terrorism" and is not eligible for most U.S. aid.

"It would be hard to envision a full-fledged peace agreement between Israel and Syria without Syria and the United States wanting to take steps to improve our relationship as well," said State Department spokesman James Rubin.

The United States says the obstacles to good relations are Syrian support for Hizbollah guerrillas in south Lebanon and the presence in Damascus of Palestinian groups traditionally committed to armed struggle against Israel.

But most of the Palestinian groups have not carried out military operations for years and are moving toward purely political opposition to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and to his agreements with Israel.

The State Department removed one of the groups, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, from its list of "foreign terrorist organisations" last year, apparently in recognition of its changing attitude to the peace process.

Peace between Israel and Syria is expected to go hand in hand with peace between Israel and Lebanon, largely undermining the raison d'etre of Hizbollah, whose primary aim is to drive Israeli forces out of south Lebanon.

Analysts say Syria has used Hizbollah to give the Israelis a hard time in south Lebanon and put on pressure for Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. After peace, Damascus would have no incentive to support the guerrilla group.

The Israeli media, extrapolating from the close ties between Cairo and Washington after the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty of 1979, have carried speculation that Damascus and Washington would also develop a special relationship.

Egypt became the second biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid after Israel, receiving about $2 billion a year, much of it in military supplies such as tanks and planes.

Jordan, which made peace with Israel in 1994, has also received financial rewards from the United States.

Opponents of Israeli withdrawal from the Golan, demonstrating at the peace talks in West Virginia this week, said they feared that the United States would rearm the Syrian military, which has fallen behind since the collapse of the Soviet Union, once its main source of arms.

But Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said he doubted Washington would embark on much of a military or economic relationship with the Syrians.

"I wouldn't expect it to be as close as our military relationship with Jordan, which has a long history," he said.

On the contrary, the United States would probably consider even closer military ties with Israel, to answer Israeli concerns that withdrawal would make them vulnerable, he added.

For economic cooperation, Syria would look toward Europe, a traditional trading partner. "They don't expect a close trade or political relationship with the United States. Europe is what they feel comfortable with," Alterman said.

Asked about aid to Syria this week, the United States has deferred to the World Bank and other international financial organisations as potential donors. The wealthy Gulf states, which have given financial support for years, and the European Union will probably pay up, too, analysts say.

But peace with Israel could diminish the regional influence of Syria, which for decades sought clout in the Middle East beyond its economic and military means by projecting itself as a bastion of Arab nationalism and counterweight to Israel.

Rubin said through prolonged informal contacts at the Shepherdstown talks Syrians and Americans were growing acquainted in a way that was not possible in the brief formal meetings they have had in the past. He noted that U.S. and Syrian generals have also met at the talks.

In reality, relations between Syria and the United States had already taken a giant step forward in 1990, when Syria agreed to join the Gulf War coalition against Iraq.

Former Secretary of State Warren Christopher visited the country about two dozen times in four years.-Reuters