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Europe needs to accept more migrants: UN report

UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations is preparing a provocative new report alerting Europe that it may need to accept many more migrants over the next 50 years to maintain population levels and the size of its workforce.

Joseph Chamie, Director of the UN Population Division, acknowledged that the report is likely to fuel an intense debate in Europe, which Ñ unlike the United States, Canada and Australia Ñ has been generally reluctant to accept waves of migrants to meet its labour needs.

He noted recent polls in countries such as Switzerland, Austria, France and Germany, which indicate that many voters share anti-migrant attitudes, while European politicians fear unemployment and the backlash from labour unions opposed to cheaper migrant labour.

"This will be a challenge for them," Chamie said. "But they have to start now. The longer you wait the more serious the problem is likely to be," he said, equating the problem to that of a leaky roof that only gets worse if it isn't fixed.

Europe's population is projected to decrease dramatically over the next five decades Ñ primarily due to low fertility rates. In Italy alone, the current population of 57 million is expected to shrink to 41 million by 2050.

Preliminary estimates from the UN Population Division indicate that, with its low fertility rates, Italy will need about 300,000 migrants a year between 1995 and 2025 to keep its labour force at the 1995 level.

Germany, meanwhile, will need 500,000 migrants a year, according to the estimates compiled for the report: "Replacement Migration: A Solution to Declining and Aging Populations?" which is expected to be released in March.

While the developing world's population is ever increasing, Germany's population of 82 million is expected to decrease to 73 million by 2050, according to UN figures.

Chamie is quick to point out that the United Nations isn't recommending that European countries and Japan, which is also expected to see a population decrease accept huge numbers of migrants. The report is merely intended to highlight the consequences of maintaining current migration levels since fertility and mortality rates aren't likely to change dramatically over the next 50 years.

"There are only three to four things you can do: you can raise the age of retirement, you can reduce the benefits, you can increase the payments, or you can change the system altogether," Chamie said in an interview.

"We as demographers don't give them prescriptions," he added. "What we tell them though is if you don't have migrants Ñ and conditions continue with fertility as it is, and most of their demographers say the same thing Ñ then be prepared for smaller, older populations. This is part of our responsibility, to indicate trends."

The report examines the population situation in eight countries: France, Germany, Italy, Japan Russia, South Korea, Britain and the United States. It looks at four separate scenarios, including population levels without migration and what levels of migration would be required to maintain the population at 1995 levels.

The report also looks at what level of migration would be required to maintain the ratio of the working-age population to the retired-age population.

Currently in Europe, there are five working-age people for every person over 65. In 2050, there will be two working-age people for every retired-age person.