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China's economy seen growing 7.8 pct in 2000

BEIJING: China's economy is expected to grow 7.8 percent this year compared with 7.1 percent in 1999, a senior government economist said on Monday.

"The growth of the national economy this year could reverse a slowing trend in the past seven years," Chen Dongqi of the State Development Planning Commission wrote in the official People's Daily.

"The growth of gross domestic product this year is expected to recover and match the 7.8 percent rate recorded in 1998," Chen said.

The economy would grow a year-on-year 6.5 percent in the first quarter of this year before gradually accelerating, he predicted.

Some economists have forecast relatively robust economic growth this year, citing a recovery in exports and easing deflation. US investment house Merrill Lynch has forecast 8.5 percent growth this year.

China's exports, buoyed by expected entry into the World Trade Organisation and government support, were expected to rise seven percent in 2000 from last year, Chen predicted.

The inflow of foreign investment could recover as China opens wider to the outside world once it is a WTO member, he said.

"The overall investment demand will show a marked increase if the size of actual utilisation of foreign capital hits $55 billion this year," he said.

China's actual foreign direct investment slipped a year-on-year 9.7 percent in the first 11 months of this year to $37 billion, according to the latest official data.

Retail sales were expected to rise between eight and nine percent this year, Chen predicted.

The government has pledged to continue its deficit spending this year to keep the economy from faltering.-Reuters