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CBOT soya ends firm on weather, report uncertainty

CHICAGO: Soyabean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended firmer Tuesday as uncertainty over weather in South America and anticipation of possibly bullish government data buoyed prices, traders said.

Soyabeans settled 3/4 to 4 cents per bushel higher, with March contracts up 1 cent at $4.74-1/2.

Parched areas of South America's soyabean belt were expected to receive rainfall this week, but meteorologists said it would likely not be enough to completely alleviate dry soils. Forecasters Tuesday differed in their precipitation amounts and coverage, traders said, contributing to trade uncertainty.

"Some people have less rain in their forecasts for Brazil," said Anne Frick, oilseed analyst for Prudential Securities in New York.

Weather Services Corp. forecast a chance of a few light showers in Rio Grande do Sul and southwest Parana Tuesday and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1-1/2 inch were expected.

Crops in the key growing states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana in southern Brazil have suffered from below-normal rainfall since the start of the planting season in October.

"There are chances that big losses will begin to develop in Brazil unless there are big rains soon," said Jack Scoville, an analyst with Price Futures Group, in a report Tuesday. "That has the market a little worried right now and is keeping prices firm."

On Wednesday, the US Department of Agriculture will release reports on US winter wheat acreage, monthly supply and demand, quarterly US stocks and final 1999 US corn and soyabean production.

Analysts said the data slated for release Wednesday stood a better chance of being bullish for soyabean prices than bearish. A modest downward revision to the USDA's 1999 US soyabean production estimate was expected. A smaller crop may lead to a lower USDA projection for ending US soyabean stocks for 1999/2000 from the current estimate of 395 million bushels.

"Odds favour a lower crop size," Frick said. A Reuters survey of analysts placed the crop at 2.666 billion bushels, compared with the USDA November report figure of 2.741 billion.

The USDA may also raise its projection for US 1999/2000 soyabean exports, some analysts said. The current estimate is 865 million bushels.

Funds were estimated to have bought about 3,300 soyabean contracts up to late trading, traders said, adding that funds appeared to be accumulating long positions. Up to late trading, Prudential Securities bought 500 March contracts, Cargill Investor Services bought 200 March and 200 November and R.J. O'Brien & Associates sold 1,000 March, floor sources said.

In options, Prudential Securities bought 1,000 March $4.50 puts.

Soyabean futures volume during Tuesday's pit session was estimated by the CBOT at 45,000 contracts, compared with 49,027 Monday.-Reuters