20000101

Bangkok residents gloomy on 2000 outlook-survey

BANGKOK: Residents of the Thai capital, Bangkok, are still gloomy over the prospects for themselves and their country in 2000, according to a survey by advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather.

The in-depth, representative survey of the attitudes of 200 Bangkok residents, conducted during November 1-14 and received by Reuters on Friday, showed most thought the Thai economy would either stay the same or get worse next year.

Sociologists regard Bangkok residents as the most influential group of consumers in Thailand, who tend to form opinions adopted later by people elsewhere in the country.

"Although business indexes indicate that the Thai economy has moved to a recovery phase, most Bangkokians still don't feel that way," a report of the survey said.

"We found that 43 percent of them, especially among the low income groups, feel that next year's economy would 'remain the same'. A quarter of them even felt things would 'get worse'."

"The optimists or those who believed things would 'get better' (32 percent) are mostly the younger, single respondents, those of the middle and upper income groups," it said.

Official data show Thailand is just emerging from two-and-a-half years of severe recession which took hold after the devaluation of the Thai baht currency in July 1997.

The Thai economy imploded in 1997 and 1998, contracting by more than one percent in 1997 and an estimated 10.4 percent in 1998, according to the government's leading economic think tank.

Economists expect Thai gross domestic product to rebound by about four percent this year and possibly at a faster rate in 2000 after recent statistics showing Thai exports, imports and industrial output all recovering sharply.

But this optimism is not shared by most Bangkok residents, the survey showed. Under the heading "Pessimism over economic recovery prevails", it said:

"Compared with our previous study conducted...in 1998, it appears that at that time people were more optimistic about the economic recovery than this year." -Reuters