20000411

KSE-100 INDEX

First I apologize to stay out from the market for long period of time. I was not well and my computer also refused to obey a sick man. Now we both are quiet right and start writing regularly.

Now lets come to the point. On Monday, despite first day of new account period, the market closed down because of fresh selling in blue chips. Now while all expected fundamentals have been discounted, the market may trade on technical. Technically, if we go on monthly trading charts, it is clear that after February 2000, it started to lose its upward potential and may seek big technical correction to increase its positive momentum. On Monday its failure to find support at 1935 also favours the ideas that it may not find significant buying in near term.

On trading charts immediate support is expected at 1917, which is also pivot point for next direction. Ability to hold above may favours consolidation in prices. On the other hand one may expect sharp losses of 50 to 75 points in medium term. From above side overhead resistance is expected at 1935.

It is recommended to stay on the line or short active share with strict stop out prices.

DEWAN SALMAN FIBER

In negative market, scrips efforts to attract fresh buying indicates enough momentum for bullish rallies in near term. On Monday DSF opened above from its major resistance Rs 45.00 and then succeeded to find support around that levels. It is expected that in near term it may try to test its next major resistance Rs 47.80, which is also highest price of last two years. Technically It is neutral but approaching to overbought conditions. For instance at present, 14 days RSI is around Rs 70.00 with positive slope. Around Rs 47.80 it may enter in to overbought region. Therefore positions squaring around that level may give good trading results.

Pivot price for Tuesday's trading is Rs 45.80, stay long with stop loss of Rs 45.80.

PTCL

Volume leader PTCL is near to test its major support Rs 31.10 on daily trading charts. And its next direction will depends on penetration of that price . Pivot price for Tuesday's trading is Rs 31.65, weak opening may set next stop around Rs 31.10 and good opening may set next resistance at Rs 32.00. However, we recommend fresh buying after Rs 32.00.

Technical out look is negative and likelihood of downward move is high, stay on the side lone or sell PTCL with stop loss of Rs 31.65

Adamjee Insurance

Adamjee Seems to be in hurry to test its major support price Rs 105 as it made 20 rupees loss in couple of sessions. Technically though it was due for negative correction but we do not expect such sharp decline. It appears that players of Adamjee wants to get rid of this ill-fated share for the time being.

On trading charts immediate supports are executed at Rs 105, Rs 102 and then at Rs 90.00. Technically, there is enough room for more losses in near term, it is recommended to stay on the side line and wait for opportune time for fresh buying.